Strategic alliance in Central Asia creates new Eurasian power center

by Yasemin Dobra-Manco

With the recent emergence of the "Shanghai Pact," composed of China, Russia and four Central Asian nations, a new multilateral regional organization now poses unprecedented challenges to the advancement of pro-Western models and relations in Eurasia. The new alignment aims to promote trade and investment, fight Islamic terrorism, separatism and extremism, while safeguarding regional security.

The failure, or lack of, effective Western policies in Central Asia has facilitated the building of this new economic security bloc, which is expected to grow (possibly with the joining of Mongolia, Pakistan or India).

The organization, formerly called the "Shanghai Five," included Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Russia and China, and changed its name to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in June when Uzbekistan became a member. Western analysts expect the organization could obstruct and counter Turkish, U.S. and Western influence in the region. The group has already issued a joint statement opposing U.S. plans to create a missile defense system.

Towards a global multi-polar system?

The Turkish Daily News asked Institute for Advanced Strategic & Political Studies (IASPS) Strategic Fellow Paul Michael Wihbey in Washington whether we are witnessing the emergence of a new bloc in Eurasia, which could increasingly oppose Western aspirations and interests?

"Yes, a new Eurasian power center is rapidly emerging centered on the strategic entente between Russia and China," replied Wihbey. "This alignment, which was institutionalized at the recent SCO security meeting will receive full ratification at the upcoming Putin-Zemin summit. This ratification will greatly fulfill Russia's strategic blueprint, reflected in the Primakov Doctrine, whose primary objective is to deny the United States global dominance by creating a global multi-polar system of power," he explained.

When asked why the United States and Turkey have lost influence in the region over the past few years, he stated: "To a great degree this new geopolitical condition was brought on by the miscalculations of U.S. policy planners during the Clinton Administration. As I indicated in a speech I presented for the Assembly of Turkish American Associations in 1999, the formation of a new Eurasian anti-U.S. system was inevitable given the working assumptions of the United States at that time, and with particular reference to the Great Game being played in Central Asia. Up until the mid-1990's the United States, along with Turkey as its principal regional ally, had the opportunity to establish a pro-Western zone of influence throughout Central Asia. Regrettably, however, the Americans concentrated on issues of political reform and economic development to the exclusion of the essential requirement for a coherent regional security system that would have permitted political and economic development to proceed."

Highlighting the failure to build a security framework, Wihbey continued: "The United States assumed Russia was just too weak and the threats to Central Asian states were too insignificant to permit for the expense and effort required to construct the proper security framework to maintain the regimes of the Central Asian republics." This miscalculation was a central feature as to why Central Asia was effectively lost to the United States and Turkey and therefore relegated to the position where both China and Russia could extend their spheres of influence throughout that massive land zone culminating in the creation of the SCO.

Furthermore, Wihbey believes not only will this organization be a rival to trading blocs like the European Union, but also the Eurasian counterpart to NATO. "As a consequence Turkey's logical extension of influence into the Turkic speaking republics has been seriously blunted and it is highly unlikely that this situation will alter any time in the near future. What ought to be done at this stage is to continue the effort for a South Caucasus security pact which would require both the United states and Russia, along with Turkey, to be the security guarantors of this critical area so as to allow both the United States and Turkey to maintain a foothold in the Caspian Basin as part of a larger security framework which would bind the Southern Caspian and Eastern Mediterranean in a new regional security architecture defined by clear and concise economic and political criteria," stated Wihbey.

Turning to the role of Israel, the analyst explained how Israel fits into evolving strategies of regional security. "It is within this framework that Israel has an important role to play not only in terms of security and military issues but also as a participant in resource development and market opportunities in relation to water, natural gas and petroleum downstream projects. Obviously such a framework provides for the United States to reclaim its credibility and stature as a player of significant and even decisive influence from the South Caucasus to the western sector of the Middle East," he emphasizes.

Pipelines and new geopolitical strategy for region

When asked about his assessment of the controversial Blue Stream underwater Black Sea pipeline, he replied: "The Blue Stream pipeline, which will bring Russian and Central Asian natural gas to Turkey, will consolidate Turkey's energy dependence on Russia and will provide Moscow with possible significant leverage to use against Turkey for political concessions if and when Moscow needs to confront Turkey on contentious issues, ranging from problems in the Balkans to Caspian basin policies. This state of affairs is effectively a fait accompli unless technical problems in laying the pipeline under the Black Sea negates the project. As a result of the Blue Stream pipeline, Russian energy dominance stretching from Central Asia to the heartland of Europe is assured, and will most likely increase, as will Russian attempts to demand political concessions from consuming states, as has been the case in recent Russian energy cut-offs to Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan."

When discussing the non-Russian Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil route, which according to Turkey's energy minister will be completed by 2005, the strategist drew attention to recent statements made by the Chairman of BP Amoco, Sir John Browne. Browne was quoted in the New York Times on June 20 as saying: "We are proceeding with this project. It's commercial. It's environmentally sound." Browne clearly committed his company to the construction of the pipeline, states Wihbey.

"He strongly suggested that BP Amoco and its corporate partners recognized that indeed, there is sufficient volume in the South Caspian oil and natural gas fields to justify the construction of a Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan route that would permit oil and natural gas pipelines to offload their products at the Turkish port of Ceyhan by 2005." Indeed, Azerbaijan International Operating Company President David Woodward told a petroleum conference in Baku at the beginning of June that Azeri production levels would be boosted to 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2005, which would be in time to coincide with the projected completion of the BTC and with the necessary volume to commercially justify the project as stated by Browne.

Projections indicate that a million bpd could flow from Azeri production by 2010. Russian and Kazakh deposits in the North Caspian may produce as much as 5-7 million bpd by 2010, putting total Caspian production levels at a level close or equal to current Saudi volume.

It was also pointed out that the recent decision by U.S. Congress (specifically the House International Relations Middle East Subcommittee) to extend the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act by an additional five years has sent a compelling signal to corporate investors that Iran is still off-limits to major U.S. capital investment, and as a consequence, the Iranian alternative to BTC has diminished.

"I believe that while volume and geopolitical conditions and economic justification for the pipeline have contributed to the belief that BTC can be completed by 2005, there is still a serious obstacle in the form of Russian obstructionism in the South Caucasus. This is an issue which requires a strong U.S. role to make sure that this obstruction does not set back the 2005 date of completion and such U.S. calculations ought to be coordinated with Ankara and Baku to provide the Russians with incentives not to interfere with BTC, and to convince the Russians that it is in their interest -- given the large volumes of oil in the North Caspian -- to have as many export routes for Caspian petroleum as possible," said Wihbey.

On the subject of increased traffic in the Turkish Straits, he noted "As more finds are discovered in the North Caspian, the issue of transporting that oil by tanker through the Bosporus becomes problematic, and a growing contentious issue between Russia and Turkey. Having the BTC pipeline operational by 2005 will help relieve the stress of exporting Kazakh and Russian oil to various consumer markets, as well as diminishing the level of tension between Turkey and Russia."

Missile defense

At the beginning of June, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld held talks with Turkish officials in Ankara to discuss the possibility of a U.S. led missile defense system for the region. Coming on the heels of recent announcements that Iran had successfully launched its new solid fuel, short-range Fatah-110 missile (the latest in the series of launches in Iran's expanding missile delivery program), the strategic fellow explained that the talks with Rumsfeld also took on additional significance due to the Russian decision to provide Syria with three special Mig-25 advanced high altitude reconnaissance jets.

"This significance can be seen within the context of the recent large-scale Anatolian Eagle military air exercises that were held near Konya in Turkey two weeks ago, which combined air assets from Israel, the United States and Turkey. The joint exercises involved destruction tactics against missile launchers, utilizing the Israeli Arrow antimissile system in mock combat, as well as advanced radar capabilities that would detect incoming missile launches from Syria and Iran. As a consequence it is likely that a regional or theatre missile defense system centered on Israeli and U.S. technologies may soon be put in place that would provide Turkey with a new advanced layer of defense and deterrence against missile strikes," Wihbey said.

Such a prospect, he says, is a clear change of U.S. policy direction from the previous Clinton Administration, which urged Turkey to rely solely on its conventional air defenses.

IASPS Symposium

While focusing on the topics discussed in May in Jerusalem at a IASPS symposium entitled "Turkish Water, Caspian Energy: A National Security Priority for Israel and the West," Wihbey offered means of bringing stability and peace to the region.

The expert said a new period has started in the region, adding that the Caucasus basin has gradually gained importance. He also stressed the requirement of a new regional structure covering Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and extending to the Southern Mediterranean via Turkey, against the "neo-Soviet attitude" of Moscow. Such a structuring, which covers cooperation in water and oil, as well as a security dimension (extending from the Southern Caucasus to Negev) could be possible, he said. Wihbey stressed, "I believe it is in the national security interests of the United States for American policy planners to discuss this new regional restructuring with their Turkish and Israeli counterparts as soon as possible."

During the conference Technology and Energy Affairs Department of the Center for Eurasian Studies (ASAM) Director Necdet Pamir, in Ankara, stated that while it is of vital importance for the newly independent republics in the Caspian region to be able to immediately export their hydrocarbon riches through routes that are not exclusively crossing the Russian territory, "It is also crucial for Turkey to diversify its supply sources of energy, while Turkey offers the most rational market and export route as an alternative opening against the exclusive outlets that have to cross the Russian territory to reach the world markets." Pamir specifically mentioned projects such as the Baku-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline, Turkmenistan-Turkey Natural Gas Pipeline, and the Azerbaijan-Turkey Natural Gas Pipeline.

The ASAM expert explained that the Caspian region offers one of the most rational solutions for Turkey's and the entire region's energy demands, meaning the Caspian can help supply the oil and gas needs of both Turkey and Israel -- if the pipelines mentioned above are constructed, and if local policymakers, and policymakers in the United States, recognize the pipelines' importance and view water shortages and oil and gas needs from a geopolitical, strategic vantage point.

Pipeline used to cement alliances

Given the significant oil and gas reserves of the Caspian region, the only question is how to export them. It was brought to attention that a pipeline that avoids Russian territory, and "that cements friendships or alliances between other countries in the area," will be able to replace the natural gas Israel currently expected to receive from Egypt. The IASPS conference discussed the benefits that could accrue to Israel from a new oil and gas pipeline route between Baku and Ceyhan, especially since Israel is emerging as an increasingly important market for natural gas."Thus, the Israeli government, were it thinking strategically, should support the construction of these pipelines," Pamir said.

During the conference Israeli Minister for Regional Cooperation Tsippi Livni said that she looked forward to enhancing the Turkish-Israeli friendship through cooperation on oil and gas supplies, stemming from the Baku-Ceyhan and other pipelines. This statement seems to reflects an awareness among Israeli officials of the importance of the pipelines and Israel's relationship with Turkey.

It was noted that the above discussions demonstrate, that despite the Egyptian intention to cancel its gas commitment to Israel, an alternative exists which provides a basis for expanding the good relations that exist between Israel and the Caspian countries. Attention was drawn to the possibility that a full-fledged strategic relationship can change the geopolitical framework of the entire region, for the benefit of Israel, Turkey and the West.

Sale of water will strengthen cooperation

The IASPC conference also presented the Israeli water crisis as a basis for a regional alliance. Criticism was targeted at the Israeli bureaucracy and state apparatus particularly because decisions were not being made quickly enough. Another obstacle to the advancement of the proposed new framework, is the prolonged negotiations over the price of water. The long delays are not favorably perceived by policymakers in Turkey.

Hydropolitics and Strategic Research and Development Center at Hacettepe University Director Dr. Ali Ihsan Bagis, called on Israeli policymakers to "make a gesture and stop prolonging negotiations over the price of water." According to an article published in Ha'aretz on May 31, Bagis told participants that the negotiations to sell water to Israel have reached a dead end because of Israel's attempt "to get water for free." He said a large gap remains between the price demanded by Turkey and what Israel is offering.

Another leading analyst, Ilan Berman, blamed the cancellation over the past year of $5 billion worth of military and industrial contracts between Israel and Turkey, on Turkish displeasure at the delays in reaching a water deal. The analyst urged Israelis and Americans to view the upcoming water deal as a first step towards a strategic relationship, that would later include Jordan, and that would provide a Western-based alliance for the region to counter the Syrian-Iraqi and Russian based axis already existing.

Israeli Infrastructure Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who also attended the conference stressed that "Our greatest interest is economic cooperation in water and energy."

Although the Israeli Finance Ministry had long been opposed to Turkish water importation, a reversal of the water importation policy by the Finance Ministry occurred one week after the IASPC conference. The director of the Finance Ministry's budget division stated, "I see the desalination of 200 million cubic meters and the import of water from Turkey as a welcome and economically advantageous step ..."

Wihbey summarized the discussions as follows: "The establishment of a four-nation working group comprising the United States, Israel, Turkey and Jordan, to examine and report on regional issues of water management and allocation, is of great importance. A speedy conclusion of an agreement for Israel to import fresh water from Turkey will enhance the Turkish-Israeli strategic alignment. The government and people of Israel have much to gain from a new pipeline from Baku to Ceyhan." He added that the pipeline would be a benefit to the whole region, given the need to diversify oil and natural gas supplies to European and Mediterranean consumers, including Turkey and Israel.