The US vs. Terror and Spheres of Influence

The military actions undertaken by the United States and its allies against Taliban regime and the members of Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist network portends real, even, historic changes in national spheres of influence, alliance systems and the possible creation of new national boundaries.

Amongst the leading contenders for extended influence and dominance in this current geopolitical zone of instability are countries like Russia, Iran, India and Turkey. As evidenced by the Bush-Putin Texas summit, Russia is making a bold bid to secure a new strategic partnership with the United States. Offering a significant contribution through its intelligence capability in Afghanistan, as well as providing military supplies and armament to the Northern Alliance, Moscow’s invaluable support to the American war effort, has provided Moscow with the opportunity to expand its geostrategic space in Eurasia with the consent and approval of Washington. For Russian President Putin and his advisors this prospect translates into an active bargaining posture with the Americans that amongst other things would allow for a host of benefits.

To name but a few: a free hand against Chechnya rebels; a reduction in offensive missile levels to a level that the Russian economy can sustain; a compromise deal on the ABM Treaty in return for Russian participation in NATO security decisions; U.S. support for Russia’s World Trade Organization membership and elimination of the Cold-War era Jackson-Vanik sanctions legislation against the Soviet Union and which remains a barrier to Russian WTO membership. All these measures plus Russia’s likely emergence as the new Eurasian swing producer of oil in Eurasia, strongly suggests that Russia will try to bargain a grand alliance with the United States that would effectively reconstitute a Russian zone of influence within the boundaries of the old Soviet empire.

Moscow’s case to the West that it be considered  the new regional hegemon is made even more compelling given its very substantial leverage with key Persian Gulf States like Iran and Iraq. Although the creation of a new regional Eurasian order is in the very early stages of discussion and negotiation, Moscow has been the first off the mark to redefine its national security interests within the context of an American reevaluation of U.S. priorities in the region. It is therefore not surprising that President Bush and President Putin are planning another summit in Moscow in 2002 to redefine mutual strategic interests and possibly redraw the map of the Greater Middle East and Central Asia.

Printer-Friendly Version